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Home Field Advantage inMLB: Interleague Games (Part four) |
by:
Proloy Bhattacharyya |
By Proloy Bhattacharyya
NFLSystems.com
proloy@nflsystems.com
September onetwo, twozerozerofive
Our analysis has consistently shown us that home teams perform better against non-divisional rivals but we have always lumped Interleague teams into this category. There is reason to believe that Interleague home teams havelarger advantage.
It makes sense for home teams to perform better in Interleague play forvariety of reasons. AL teams haveadvantage at home anddisadvantage onroad because ofDH. When allowed to useDH, AL teams are able to usevastly superior #nine hitter thanNL teams are used to. If AL teams are not allowed to useDH, this will often causeAL team to either drop their DH, who is generally one of their best hitters or move him intoposition forInterleague games. SinceDH is not used to playingposition, he becomes susceptible to committing errors.
There is alsoissue with familiarity. Road teams in Interleague games are often not familiar withstadium they are playing in and asresult cannot use it to their advantage. The classic example would be at Fenway Park where banging balls up againstGreen Monster leads tolot of doubles. The Padres hadlosing home record last season and much of their complaints had to do withfact that their hitters were not familiar enough withstadium to take advantage.
Familiarity can also be extended to pitcher / hitter scouting reports. With both teams lackingextensive scouting reports they normally would have in normal games,home field advantage will likely weigh more.
Our analysis shows us that home teams during Interleague play have won fivesix.two% oftime versus fivethree.two% during non-Interleague play. A three.zero% difference is significant here, especially insport where home field advantage is perceived not to exist.
Home Favorites in Interleague play overpast three seasons have gone threethreeone-onenineone (sixthree.four%) +fivethree units. If our team is motivated offloss tovery same team it is facing, our team’s win percentage jumps up to sixfive.one% andspread is off by about onefive points on average.
As you can see, since Interleague games represent suchsmall minority oftotal number of games played,home field advantage in such games is not readily known.
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